Toronto Dominon FY 2Q17 Earnings Call Notes

Bharat Masrani – CEO

Greg Braca

*We’ve seen some slow down in commercial markets

“I would just also call out that Q1 and Q2 we’ve seen some slow down in general across all commercial markets, a couple of things have been going on higher interest rates, we’ve seen clients staying on the side lines or hitting the bond market and retiring bank debt that we’ve also seeing less CapEx spend. And in the U.S., we’ve decidedly seen a lot of our commercial clients sitting on the side lines for the last couple of quarters with a wait and see attitude with everything from decisions on taxes to infrastructure spend and the rules of the road in the U.S. with the new administration”

Mark Chauvin

You can’t have lower losses forever

“Now, I’m not looking for major increases, but you can’t have really lower losses for the extended period of time. So, I would look for the modest increase maybe in next quarter, but from a quality perspective I prefer to look at loss rates. And we’re really in the current economic environment and borrowing a significant change in that, we’re looking at the loss rates in the U.S., staying relatively consistent to what we’re seeing for the — in this quarter and for the balance of the year.”

Mike Pedersen

Deposit beta has been low but rising with Fed rate increases

“Now, I’m not looking for major increases, but you can’t have really lower losses for the extended period of time. So, I would look for the modest increase maybe in next quarter, but from a quality perspective I prefer to look at loss rates. And we’re really in the current economic environment and borrowing a significant change in that, we’re looking at the loss rates in the U.S., staying relatively consistent to what we’re seeing for the — in this quarter and for the balance of the year.”

TD Bank FY 1Q16 Earnings Call Notes

The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Bharat B. Masrani on Q1 2016

Normalization in credit conditions became apparent this quarter

“We have signaled for some time that we expected a normalization in credit conditions. That became apparent this quarter. But while provisions rose, this was due in large part to volume growth, prior-period recoveries, and the negative impact of foreign exchange.”

Deterioration in oil and gas but credit quality remains strong otherwise

“Underlying loss rates remain acceptable. We did experience some negative credit migration in oil and gas portfolios, and we added to reserves accordingly. We continued to monitor our oil and gas exposures closely and remain confident that any losses will be manageable given the small size of this exposure relative to our balance sheet. Mark will address credit in more detail in his remarks, but at a high level, credit quality remains strong across our Canadian and U.S. portfolios and we are comfortable that we are adequately reserved.”

Fundamentals are strong despite the market

“More generally, the heightened focus on credit and falling commodity prices reflects growing concern that fiscal and monetary authorities will be unable to prevent a slowdown in the global economy. The resulting increase in risk aversion has unsettled financial markets and shaken confidence in the outlook. While this volatility can be unnerving, it is important not to lose sight of the fundamentals. TD’s business model is strong”

Riaz E. Ahmed – Group Head and Chief Financial Officer

Mark R. Chauvin – Chief Risk Officer and Group Head

Seeing definitely signs of deterioration in oil affected regions

“Although we are seeing definite signs of deterioration in consumer lending, delinquency, and loss rates in the impacted regions, to-date, loan losses have been largely offset by strong performance across the rest of the country.”

Credit quality is strong otherwise, but has normalized

“To conclude, the key takeaways in the quarter are: first, credit quality remains strong in the Canadian and U.S. portfolios; second, the U.S. portfolio losses have largely normalized from unsustainably low levels in 2015 with losses expected to remain stable over the balance of the year; and lastly, our major concern continues to be low energy prices.”

Seeing credit losses in auto in oil impacted provinces

“Yeah. So, the – I would say on the indirect auto in Canada, prime and non-prime or what you’re referring to, is the one area that we’re seeing the initial credit losses in the oil impacted provinces”

Michael Bo Pedersen – Group Head-U.S. Banking TD Bank Group and President & CEO-TD Bank

Credit card loans season after two years

“with cards, as we build that book quite fast, there’s a phenomenon we call seasoning which means that in the second year, you tend to get a little more delinquency and loss than you do in the first year. So, as you build, that gets reflected as the cohort season. So, you’re seeing a little bit of that across the portfolio, but that was very much – it’s behaving as expected, nothing that causes us any worry.”

Miscellaneous Earnings Call Notes 12.11.15

Universal Health Services (UHS) Presents at Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2015 Leveraged Finance Brokers Conference

Steve Filton

Behavioral health business is more recession resistant

“if you’re seeking — and you’re seeking acute care treatment, you need a hip implant or you need some sort of ENT surgery et cetera, you may think about the economics of that; you may choose to postpone that because you don’t want to come out of pocket for a co-pay or deductable or because you don’t want to be out of work frankly during a tough economic climate. But if you try to commit suicide or you overdose on drugs and alcohol, you are not going to be in a position to decide whether you should or shouldn’t be admitted to the hospital. That decision is really being made generally by somebody else who is effectively economically insensitive to what your economics of the situation or concerns might be. So, I think that’s another reason why the behavioral business has generally proved to be more, I’ll call it, recession resistant.”

Optimum occupancy in behavioral care is in the low to mid 70s

“occupancy rates and our behavioral facility peaks in the mid 80s, right around 84% in about 2005-2006. What we started to do at that point because we have a view probably the ideal occupancy rate in this business is somewhere in the low to mid 70s. And so, when we were at 85% in about 10 years ago, we’re turning away a lot of patients at that point because obviously if we’re averaging 85%, it means that there’s a lot of days when we’re at 90 and 95 and even a 100% occupancy. It also means that because of some of the constraints that we have, we have put male and female patients; we don’t put adults and children together, we don’t certain diagnoses together. So, as a consequence, it’s difficult for facilities to really run at something close to full occupancy.”

Silicon Laboratories Presents at Credit Suisse Technology, Media & Telecom Conference

Tyson Tuttle

Low power for IoT requires innovation

“if you look at the energy efficiency that’s required. If you’re handset only has 10% battery life left, and I know that when mind says 10% battery life, I’m like looking for a charger. But if you imagine that amount of power needs to power an IoT device for five years. So that’s essentially the amount of energy that’s in the little coin cell and they want that device to sense the environment. Let’s say every few minutes it needs to communicate that when something happens. This type of energy consumption requires a lot of innovation. And if so this is what we are focused on doing.”

From a macro perspective, wireless markets suffering but infrastructure business doing well

“I think a lot of people that we are selling into wireless were suffering, especially in China, we were not exposed to that at least on our infrastructure business, we had a little bit of exposure on the microcontroller side and some of the optical modules that did hold back our growth in IoT in the second half. But on infrastructure we see that it’s pretty solid globally. And this is more of a reflection of core network in data center roll outs.”

Barnes & Noble’s (BKS) CEO Ronald Boire on Q2 2016 Results

Have seen increased traffic so far in Q3

“the challenges were greater than anticipated and reduced traffic as well as conversion. During the second quarter, we implemented a significant number of website fixes to increase traffic, improve the overall user experience and stabilize the site. So far during Q3, we have seen increased traffic and have stabilized the site for the holiday season. We plan to implement additional improvements after the holiday season to further upgrade the overall user experience.”

The Cooper Companies’ (COO) CEO Bob Weiss on Q4 2015 Results

Had a bumpy ride from mid September through the end of November

“August was a good month and things dropped off in October a lot, particularly in the U.S. and some of the problems we ran into in Europe exacerbated the most. We thought we’re in pretty good shape in early September, found out we weren’t in as good shape as we thought by mid-September and had a bumpy ride with our integration if you will in Europe, from mid September until pretty much the end of November. Having said that, we had what we call a very respectable November”

Toronto-Dominion Bank’s (TD) CEO Bharat Masrani On Q4 2015 Results

Mark Chauvin

Are starting to see stress in consumer credit portfolios in energy-impacted provinces, but within expectations

“Next, with respect to our oil and gas exposure, we were not surprised by the level of impaired loan formations this quarter. Ongoing analysis indicates that the oil and gas nonretail credit portfolio continues to perform within expectations, given the current level in near-term outlook for commodity prices in this sector. We are beginning to see signs of deterioration in the oil impacted provinces consumer credit portfolios, which again are well within our earlier expectations. Based on ongoing stress tests conducted against the credit portfolios, I remain comfortable that the potential impact of low energy prices on the bank’s credit losses remains well within the range of a 5% to 10% increase over 2015 levels.”

Seeing a gradual increase in delinquency rates over last 4-5 months in oil impacted provinces

“we have been watching it very closely, especially the impacted provinces, which would be Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland. And what we are seeing in two categories, being the indirect auto but the non-prime segment primarily and then in the card segment, we have seen a gradual increase in delinquency rates over the last four or five months.”

Customers affected are early indicator, the type of customer that would be more challenged than the typical customer

“So in many respects we look at that as an early indicator because that would be the customer that maybe would be more challenged than the typical customer. Now, I would stress that these two categories are less than 1% of our total book and that we expected to see losses of this level.”

Sprint’s (S) Management Presents at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Brokers Conference

Tarek Robbiati — CFO

Wireless data is much cheaper in some other markets than the US

” I think the – look at the U.S. wireless market, it’s the biggest one in the world by value. And the reason why it is the biggest one in the world by value is because we have 300 million people and you have a very, very high ARPU…when you really look at some of their – the size of their bills, it’s quite extraordinary. I mean you compare this with Hong Kong which is a market that I am very familiar with. In Hong Kong you can get very, very decent data packages on 4G networks for less than $5 postpaid, which is quite extraordinary.”

Comcast’s (CMCSA) Management Presents at UBS Global Media and Communications Conference

Mike Cavanagh–CFO

No new comments on wireless plans. We believe the cheapest way to transmit data is to get it to the hardwire as soon as possible

“we have no news on this topic today. What we have decided is that it’s certainly worth at this point triggering the MVNOs that we can work on exploring what kind of offering we could bring and go deeper to learn and experiment. That’s the state of play on the MVNO. And that sits in the context of having been big believers in WiFi. So, you have seen us invest in and continue to invest in the WiFi as an extension of the value of the broadband pipe, which is still the kind of best and cheapest way to transmit data we believe is to get it to the hardwire as soon as possible. So, with the progress we have made on our WiFi product and broadband, we think it makes complete sense to be exploring on – what possibilities the MVNO offering has to add value to our customer relationships. That’s as much as we know. There is no – it will take time to draw any conclusions from what we are now going through.”

Vail Resorts’ (MTN) CEO Robert Katz on Q1 2016 Results

Our labor markets are tight

“think ensuring that we have enough, ensuring that we are providing the right employee experience, attracting enough of the right labor, retaining labor and then a part of that is obviously being able to have housing for everyone that works here, I think it is probably our number one concern right now in terms of ensuring that we can continue to drive success. And so, I mean that’s led us over the last couple of years to continue to invest to make sure that we can do that. I’d say where we feel right now is that our markets are tight. We think it is a challenge.’

Upper income US remained strong

“Colorado in particular is the strong market, continues to be a strong market given the economy here, Utah, the Bay Area and California so that obviously is the big help right there but then I would say we are seeing pretty broad based strength from all of our major destinations across the United States, I would say even places like Los Angeles, like Seattle which are not typically our strongest markets in terms of size, we’re seeing real strength there too”…

“I would say right now I think the domestic, the U.S. economy on the domestic side is very strong, the upper income portion of that remained strong ‘

AutoZone’s (AZO) CEO Bill Rhodes on Q1 2016 Results

DIY auto spending has benefitted from lower gas prices

“I think clearly we are seeing some industry strength currently. I think a part of that has to do with what’s going on with gas prices. And while gas prices initially went down, you didn’t see the initial correlation with miles driven increasing. But in more recent months, starting really strong in this summer, and continuing through September, the latest date that we have available, it’s showing nice strength. Over long periods of time we’ve seen that has a nice correlation with our DIY industry growth.”

Cisco Systems (CSCO) Presents at Barclays Global Technology Brokers Conference

Hilton Romanski

Customers are looking for a hybrid cloud

“what we’re hearing from customers fundamentally is that they want to see the benefits and the economics of public cloud in their private cloud environment. So that would suggest to us that ultimately there is a hybrid cloud solution out there for enterprises where some of those benefits across multiple types of workloads across their own environments that are private as well as those that are being hosted in a public cloud is going to co-exist.”

Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) CEO Steve King on Q3 2015 Results

Couldn’t be happier with how 2015 is shaping up

“we couldn’t be happier in terms of how 2015 is shaping up, while we’ve achieved so far as we look forward to a strong finish in the fourth quarter.”

Halliburton’s (HAL) Management Presents at Wells Fargo 2015 Energy Symposium Brokers Conference

Christian Garcia — Interim CFO

North America looks like it could be marginally better than expected, but international looks marginally worse

“North America does look like it’s going to be marginally better than what we said in the third quarter call and international looks like it’s marginally worse and in total, we’re in line with our expectations as we left the third quarter.”

2016 is clearly going to be another down year but we don’t know the magnitude yet

“2016 is still opaque. E&P the E&Ps have not announced their budgets, but clearly it’s going to be another down year. The question is the magnitude of the decline.”

Argentina had elections that could lead to positive economic reforms

“Argentina just had elections and we think that new president elect will usher in a new era of economic reforms achieved among that would be probably a potential depreciation of their over valid currency which will in the short term provide some little need to some dislocations but I think in the long term would be actually help that economy boot that economy and would invite for investors.'”

HCA’s Management Presents at Opperheimer 26th Annual Healthcare Broker Conference

Bill Rutherford, Chief Financial Officer

Seeing higher turnover of nurses as demand for nurses strong

“We think you know we are seeing higher turnover of recently than we’ve historically had. And we think there is a lot of other supply in the marketplace and demand for nurses. We’ve got a host of efforts around recruiting. We talked about on our call our efforts to hire nurse graduates and putting them in orientation and onboarding them a little bit differently so that they have — the retention is longer for those new nurses.”

See continued strong economies in the majority of our markets

“We see continued strong economies in the majority of our markets and I think that provides really fundamental momentum for the company and those trends don’t appear quickly, nor do they disappear quickly. So, we are optimistic that our market trends, we are seeing has some durability to it in the future.”

Comerica’s (CMA) CEO Ralph Babb on Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Brokers Conference

Energy reserves at 3% of total energy related loans

“if prices remain low for longer, we expect to see continued negative credit migration and losses to emerge yet we believe they will be manageable. We have increased our reserves for energy loans in each of the past four quarters, as a result of an increase in criticized loans and sustained low energy prices. Because investors have been particularly interested in the size of our energy reserve allocation note that at the end of the third quarter, we had reserves amounting to more than 3% of our total energy and energy related loans.”

U.S. Bancorp (USB) Presents at Goldman Sachs US Financial Services Brokers Conference

CFO, Kathy Rogers

Planning for three interest rate increases in the next 12 months including next week

“as we look out into 2016, I do think that we are seeing an economic environment that is somewhat similar to what we saw this year, may be slightly improved. As we think about the interest environment, we are projecting in our plan, a potential for two interest rate hikes next year, and then December 1 of this year; so a total of three if you look out over the course of the next 12 months.”

Not seeing any deterioration of credit outside of energy

“the simple answer is no. We’re really not. Outside of energy, it’s really relatively benign, no significant change.”

We’ve probably gotten to a point where reserves will start building again (but not necessarily because of credit deterioration)

“I think one of the things that you’re going to see is that we are getting to that point in the cycle where many banks, including ourselves, have enjoyed a nice outcome of reserve releases. And I do think we’re coming to the end of the cycle. And I think that you’ll start to see reserves starting to build as we move out into later quarters.”

Lululemon Athletica’s (LULU) Laurent Potdevin on Q3 2015 Results

Start of Q4 has been mixed

“In line with macroeconomic trends, the start of Q4 has been mixed. We saw lower traffic in the final weeks of Q3 and into the first couple of weeks of Q4, with steady improvement in Thanksgiving. Given the current environment, we’re taking a conservative stance with revenue in Q4, while taking the necessary actions to manage inventory and control expenses.”

Moody (MCO) Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference

Mark Almeida, who is the Head of the Moody’s Analytics Business

November was a good month from an issuance standpoint and December has gotten off to a strong start as well

“November was a good month from an issuance standpoint, and December has gotten off to a pretty good start as well. So I think things have firmed up a bit, since some of the weakness that we saw in the summer time.”

Korn-Ferry’s (KFY) CEO Gary Burnison on Q2 2016 Results

Even in a digital world, it still pays to have people housed in the same location

“I think that creating connectivity of people and clients in an environment of collaboration is incredibly important and although we live in a virtual world, I fundamentally believe that the people need, to the extent possible, need to be housed in the same location.”

Gregg Kvochak

“global demand for our Executive Recruitment services remained strong in the second quarter.”

McGraw-Hill Companies’ (MHFI) CEO Doug Peterson Presents at Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference

Issuance is down 30% year to date

“we’ve seen a choppier market, issuance is down during the quarter and year to date overall issuance is down globally about 28% and in the quarter its down again over 30%, 35%, 37%, depending on which element of the markets that you look at. So we’ve seen some volatility in the ratings business.”

Avnet (AVT) Presents at Raymond James Technology & Communications Investors Brokers Conference

Kevin Moriarty, CFO

Our product is service

“Avnet’s product is, our product is service, has been and always will be. Models change the way we get compensated for that service. We need to continue to be nimble and agile to be able to move with that”

We feel pretty good about the environment

“I would characterize the current lead times as stable, short. We haven’t really seen any significant changes in push outs, cancelation rates. So we feel pretty good. EM, we continue to experience growth within our European business. I would characterize the Americas as sluggish overall on the component side.”

ConocoPhillips’s (COP) CEO Ryan Lance on 2016 Capital Budget and Operating Plan

We see dividend as highest priority

“Despite the tough market, our dividend remains the highest priority use of our cash. We view the dividend level as a long-term decision. And we’ve been in the current low price cycle for relatively short period of time”

Capital budget down ~25% from last year, -54% from 2014

“We’re announcing a 2016 capital budget of $7.7 billion that’s $2.5 billion lower than 2015 capital guidance and more than $9 billion lower versus 2014. In setting our budget, we’re flexing capital down appropriately for the price environment without losing opportunities or sacrificing the safety or integrity of our operations.”

Toronto Dominon FY 2Q15 Earnings Call Notes

Partnering with Nordstrom for credit cards

“You would have seen our recent announcement about our program agreement with Nordstrom, to purchase their existing U.S. Visa and private-label card portfolio and to become their exclusive credit card issuer in the U.S.. We’re proud to have been selected in this competitive process for our customer-centric approach and proven capabilities by an organization who shares our common values on customer experience. Nordstrom is one of the most respected retail brands in the world and this announced transaction will build on the success of our growing North American credit card portfolio.”

Operating environment remains challenging

“our operating environment remains challenging. Prolonged lower rates, a slowing Canadian economy, mixed recovery signals from the U.S., continued expectations for low oil prices and regulatory and legislative pressures in both the U.S. and Canada will continue to result in slower revenue growth. ”

Credit performance remained strong

“Credit performance remained strong across all portfolios throughout the Second Quarter. Gross impaired loans and new formations remained at cyclically low levels and are in line with results over the past four quarters. ”

Oil book is holding up

“With respect to our oil and gas exposure, outstanding exposure remains stable at CAD3.8 billion representing less than 1% of total loans and acceptances. Our oil and gas book is performing within our expectations and we’re not seeing a significant deterioration in consumer credit quality in the impacted provinces. As it is still early days, however, we continue to maintain a cautious approach across retail and non-retail exposures impacted by low oil prices.’

Tracking alberta closely but haven’t seen anything

“we’re tracking Alberta very closely. It’s very heightened alert but what we’re seeing is very little if any change in the core credit metrics that would say that any, in fact that has not driven any increase in the reserves for those areas on the consumer credit side. Now maybe it’s a little early and it’s not over yet but I would say anything that is required will be captured naturally in our reserve process.”

I think we’re seeing a low end of the credit cycle

“I think we’re at the point where we’re seeing kind of at the low end of the cycle of credit losses and I personally would not expect to see material significant downside going forward, on a positive downside.”

Toronto Dominion FY 1Q15 Earnings Call Notes

Each week I read dozens of transcripts from earnings calls and presentations as part of my investment process. Below are some of the most important quotes about the economy and industry trends from the transcripts that I read this week. Full notes can be found here.

Good start to 2015, but some headwinds

“Good organic growth in loans and deposits, strong credit quality, good expense management and improved margins versus the fourth quarter contributed to an impressive start to 2015.

However, we continue to expect modest growth in the U.S. for the full year. We expect credit to normalize, our NIM for the full year will be down compared to 2014 and we anticipate lower securities gains. Our wholesale bank had a solid quarter with good trading results in a volatile market offset by lower fee based revenues.”

We will grow but it wont be easy

“This quarter demonstrated the strength of our growth engines, but major external forces like technology innovation, regulatory changes and the sustained low rate environment impact our business and industry. We are evolving our strategies to add that to these changes”

Oil will hurt the Canadian economy

” I will talk about two that are top of mind with just about everybody, oil prices and interest rates. The Bank of Canada has said the decline in oil prices in unambiguously negative for the Canadian economy. We agree, however the impact will be uneven. Oil producing provinces will bear the brunt of the drop while others including Ontario will likely benefit from a weaker dollar and stronger export demand.”

Not seeing a deterioration

“From a credit perspective we believe our direct exposure to oil and gas producers is manageable. We are not seeing any signs of deterioration though it is early days.’

Low oil prices don’t pose a material risk to the bank

“ith respect to the oil and gas sector, a series of stress tests were completed during the quarter to determine the potential impact of sustained low oil prices on the Canadian and wholesale business segments. The test indicated the sustained low oil prices are not expected to have a significant impact on the bank for the following reasons.

First, lending within the oil and gas industry is governed by disciplined underwriting standards based on strong collateral positions.

Second, unsecured consumer credit exposure to the regions most impacted is less than 2% of the bank’s total Canadian consumer credit exposure.

Third, the bank’s higher concentration in Ontario.

And lastly deposit impact of low oil prices on our Ontario and U.S. businesses. As result, I don’t believe the sustained low oil prices represent a material risk to the bank.”

Target is back on track and we think it’s sustainable

“Yes it is getting back on track and yes I think it is sustainable the — and I think with the extension of the program it gives both parties more confidence to invest in that and I think that you’ll see those investments are made that where the program should expand nicely.”

Very happy with our positioning with Ameritrade

“We’re very happy with our stake in Ameritrade, this has been central to our world strategy in many, many years it continues to perform well. So, I can’t comment on what others are doing, but we are very happy and this is a key investment for us and is more than just an investment it plays a very important role in our wealth strategy going forward in the U.S. as well, so very happy with our positioning.’

Toronto Dominion 2Q14 Earnings Call Notes

This post is part of a series of posts called “Company Notes.” These posts contain quotes and exhibits from earnings calls, conference presentations, analyst days and SEC filings. Full transcripts can be found at Seeking Alpha

So much uncertainty

“As I look ahead, I am struck by how much uncertainty we still face. Recent political events are creating headwinds for banks all over the world, interest rates are dropped back down, and expectations for our normalization in rates have been pushed further into the future, and along with them the revenue upside we will reap as a result of our deposit-rich balance sheet”

Good management teams leading sound business models adapt

“One of the most enduring lessons of my career has been that good management teams leading sound business models adapt.”

Management change

“As you know, I am here until the end of the fiscal year. This is my last quarterly call. So I’m going to take this opportunity to say my own thank yous.”

Some positive signs in mortgages

“On mortgages, it’s tough. It feels like fits and starts. The growth has improved a bit but originations are up 15% versus last quarter but they are down 70% versus last year. So that gives you a sense. My sense on mortgages is that there are some positive signs emerging, you’re seeing pending home sales up, applications are up, the percentage of people who say they want to purchase a home is up. And if you look at the estimates from Fannie and Freddie and the Mortgage Bankers Association, they are up quite strongly, sort of 13% to 25% for purchase volumes, but they are quite pessimistic on refis.”

Toronto Dominion 1Q14 Earnings Call Notes

A digest of some of the top insights that I’ve gathered from this week’s earnings calls.  Full notes can be found here.

PRetty strong Q

“The second-quarter really had a very strong quarter for TD. In fact, an outstanding quarter, earnings were up 14% year-over-year and earnings per share were up 15% to $1.9.”

Good credit quality can’t continue indefinitely but it may have legs yet

“We also benefited from broad-based improvement in credit quality in the quarter. Credit has continued to be strong and more favorable than we expected across our retail and commercial portfolios and on both sides of the border. We said before, this trend cannot continue indefinitely, but it may have a while to go.”

Mortgage market in US is slow

“the overall mortgage market is clearly challenged in the U.S. as you’ve seen some signs that that’s frightening right now in terms of application volumes through the industry and so on.”

Hopefully slowdown in personal loans was one time/seasonal

“some of this Q2 slowdown on the personal side was due to what you might think of as non-recurring factors whether that’s the weather or the seasonality or Auto and Target portfolios and I’m hoping that our loan growth will be a bit better in the next few quarters.”

Sales at Target improving

“we are already starting to see Target sales improving.”

Strength in HELOC market, maybe people not moving, borrowing to make improvements instead

“We saw some HELOC improvement in the late part of the quarter, maybe linked to this lock-in phenomenon that you hear about where people don’t want to move because they are locked into really low rates, but they are renovating and improving their current houses and so on.”

Anecdotally hearing some uptick in mortgage

“on the mortgage portfolio I don’t want to give you information that’s not sort of solidly empirically rooted. I can tell you that anecdotally you are starting to hear about a bit of an uptick.”

Toronto Dominion 4Q13 Earnings Call Notes

A digest of some of the top insights that I’ve gathered from this week’s earnings calls.  Full notes can be found here.

US set to grow faster than Canada

“it now seems clear that U.S. GDP growth is likely to outstrip Canadian GDP growth”

Same problems in Canada as the US

“low interest rates, slow personal loan growth in Canada and a demanding regulatory environment continue to affect the fundamentals of our business.”

Going to take hard work to hit earnings targets

“It will take energy and hard work to navigate these headwinds and achieve our goals for earnings growth and expense management while continuing to invest in the future, but I’m confident that with our proven strategy, strong brand and experienced team, we have everything we need to succeed.”

Slower earnings growth in US this year

“While the fundamentals of the business remain strong, earnings growth in the U.S. is expected to be modest this year, as security gains in 2014 will be materially lower than in 2013.”

We don’t think there’s an economic pause in the US

” think there is uncertainty about, is the U.S. in a pause right now, or did it just have bad weather? I think we come down that it’s in a — that it’s not in a pause. It just had bad weather, and that fundamentally, the U.S. recovery is going there, but there is a question on that. ”

A pause in the marketplace as people try to figure out the US and China

“But we may be in for the — this part of 2014, a pause in the marketplace as the market tries to figure out United States and China, where this is going.”

Can China manage this transition?

“I mean, I worry that can China manage this transition? Because it is often the case in economies like China and emerging markets where you can get to one level of GDP and you find it hard to get to the next level because it requires fairly significant institutional shifts in your economy and in your political structure.”

US has take-off momentum

“s I come down, my view is I think the United States has got, now got take-off momentum here. I think it’s reported, repaired its balance sheet. I think what’s going on in the housing market, I think, again, you could see some pullback given how fast this recovery is. It’s actually recovered faster than I think, but I’m very positive on the United States.”

Customers seem more up-beat, but slowdown in mortgages

“I’ve seen a lot of clients in the last quarter right through our footprint, Maine to Florida, and there is improving sentiment when I talk to commercial and business clients. The one area where I would say there’s obviously a slowdown is mortgages.”

All eyes on the spring selling season

“industry originations were down 58% year-over-year, and the refi boom has clearly ended. So it’ll be interesting to see what happens in the spring selling season and after the winter weather, but our goal is to continue to outgrow.”

Canadian consumer lending picking up a little

“whereas we were seeing a year-over-year slide, sort of inexorable over the last 7 or 8 quarters in personal lending growth, that actually has started to rebound a little bit. So that’s good going into the spring market. So generally, on balance, a little bit of slowing perhaps on the business side but still good market share gains and a slight acceleration perhaps on the consumer side.”

Not changing underwriting standards because of anything aggressive in the US

“We’re not changing our underwriting approaches, either for any reason or in response to anything that’s going on in the industry, and are still seeing nice growth. But it will slow down, the housing-related credit, but no changes in underwriting, and we still think we’ll outperform in terms of growth.”

Auto lending still hyper competitive though

“As far as the auto loan market in the U.S., it is still hypercompetitive. We’ve actually scaled back a little bit on both our numbers of dealers as well as our originations in the last quarter.”

Branches going from service locations to sales locations

“There is no question that the average square footage of a branch will be declining over time, and they will also changed in the nature of the transactions that happen. They’ll move much more to sales transactions versus service transactions. And we’ve seen obviously a remarkable increase in online, mobile and alternate forms of distribution growth. I would say that to date we still continue to see the vast majority of sales happening in the branches.”

Average number of households per branch

“we also have 3,200 households per store versus the industry average of 1,400.”

Toronto Dominion 1Q13 Earnings Call Notes

This post is part of a series of posts called “Company Notes.” These posts contain quotes and exhibits from earnings calls, conference presentations, analyst days and SEC filings. The quotes are generally pieces of information that I find interesting or helpful to understanding the company, industry or economy and are not meant to provide summaries of the full content of the call. Other posts in this series can be found by clicking here. Full transcripts can be found at Seeking Alpha.

“The fundamentals of our businesses are strong, but we continue to face headwinds from slower loan growth in Canada and low interest rates globally. In Canada, the slowing housing market has raised concerns about the possibility of a more dramatic correction. As you know, several years we were worried about the housing market and the risk that Canada was running. We spoke publicly about those concerns. But the government has responded with a number of reforms, which are having an impact. In my opinion, given the structure of Canadian lending, Canadians do not need to worry that we will see the type of meltdown that has occurred in other countries. We may see some softening in prices, but this will be a good thing, not a prelude to a major correction.”

“Our views on the global economy have not changed materially from last quarter. On the positive side, economic fundamentals in the United States continue to improve. The main impediment to growth appears to be the speed and nature of the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus. Debate has actually now opened up on how and when to withdraw some of the monetary expansion. All of this is very good news.

At the same time, the rest of the world looks no stronger. Europe is mired in a recession, Asian growth seems more modest and Japanese attempts to restimulate their economy through monetary stimulation have set off further downward pressure on interest rates and currency values.

But Canada is affected by these competing global forces, and our view is likely to underperform the United States in the next few years. For TD, we have to assume, despite the discussion that’s going on about where interest rates are going, that for our purposes of running the business, that interest rates do not rise soon and, therefore, that we will continue to face downward pressure on margins for at least one more year. That’s why, despite the good performance we recorded in the first half of the year, we are continuing to focus on expense management. The operating environment has changed in the last couple of years, and we had changed with it. Finding current year cost savings is not enough. We continue to focus on more permanent cost reductions.”

TD Ameritrade FY 2Q13 Earnings Call Notes

This post is part of a series of posts called “Company Notes.” These posts contain quotes and exhibits from earnings calls, conference presentations, analyst days and SEC filings. The quotes are generally pieces of information that I find interesting or helpful to understanding the company, industry or economy and are not meant to provide summaries of the full content of the call. Other posts in this series can be found by clicking here. Full transcripts can be found at Seeking Alpha.

$TD Earnings Call Notes

“Retail investor sentiment improved over the quarter…Our Investor Movement Index continues to demonstrate increased bullishness, showing upward movement in 8 of the last 9 months and is currently at its highest level since June of 2011. But while settlement has improved, engagement remains toughened as many investors hesitate to reenter the markets. ”

“The reality is that while those investors who are engaged in the markets are increasingly bullish and our RIAs continue — are currently fully invested with record low levels of client cash as a percentage of client assets, many retail investors remain cautious”

“Our trades per day improved by 13% sequentially but remain below our expectations in light of how the equity markets have done over the last 12 to 15 months as a large number of investors remain cautious.”

“as we have said many times before and we’ll continue to emphasize, we remain very well positioned for rising rates”

“I think what we saw is in January and February after the tax deal and the fiscal cliff, people started to reenter the markets, but then Europe started to become uncertain here again and it feels a bit like Groundhog Day. But we’re having one of those markets where there’s that uncertainty but there’s not much volatility ’til yesterday.”

“I would say the odds or the probability of margin loans going up with the market…happens probably 75% of the time. And there always is these 25% that it doesn’t. And it didn’t happen this quarter. So we’ve been watching and thought it would come. It didn’t come…I think the other thing that happened, there’s no question, we did have pretty good margin loans on Apple…Apple’s decline certainly has contributed to the margin loans.”

“ETFs for a retail trader, yes, they’re using the ETF…[but] they continue to be very interested in equities, and mutual funds continue to do well, equity mutual funds or balanced mutual funds. So from my perspective, we’re not seeing a significant change.”

“every year as we go towards the end of March, the asset gathering slows a bit and then the first part of April in particular like right now…And then you typically pick back up.”

“an increasing market with a few corrections along the way for increased volatility. That’s a perfect market environment for us”

“It is an advice and guidance market”