Lyondell Basell Analyst Day Notes 3.13.13

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This post is part of a series of posts called “Company Notes.”  These posts contain quotes and exhibits from earnings calls, conference presentations, analyst days and SEC filings.  The quotes are generally pieces of information that I find interesting or helpful to understanding the company, industry or economy and are not meant to provide summaries of the full content of the call.  Other posts in this series can be found by clicking here.  Full transcripts can be found at Seeking Alpha.

“sustainable changes in supply/demand and therefore price environments of NGL, chemical chain…[will dominate our discussion]”

“exploration production companies enjoyed strong natural gas prices in 2008 — 2005 and 2008 on a full year basis, and that was the relative peak at least, in the current history. Next bubble is the midstream…MLPs…They have seen the peak of their value in 2007 and 2011…[the] chemical industry [has seen] decline into the trough of the cycle of ’08 and ’09…since ’09, it continuously coming up to the high end profit and so we are far from the peak of the cycle yet”

“when you look at $110 approximate oil out there and you’ve got $3.50 gas out there. Where do they meet? They meet in the export market, that’s where they meet, and that’s where we have competitive advantage. Going forward, if you look at it in 2008, and I really just touched upon that, overall this just highlights a little bit that we don’t think we’re in this up cycle. Yes, operating rates have been very high. Jim did show you what we’ve been operating close to 100%, which is great, and we believe that’s higher than where the industry’s at. But the industry as a whole has been running very high, in the upper 90s, mid to upper 90%. So really, when you look at it from a global standpoint, it’s really a tale of 2 cities. North America and the Middle East, 2 of the cost advantaged positions have done very well and have operated very well. If you try looking at Europe and Asia, not so well and those are the regions where our utilization rates have been somewhat anemic.”

“Sustainable U.S. ethane advantage is a great advantage. Everybody has the advantage. So what are we going to do to compete and be better than the next guy? So we’re executing cheaper, quicker. We’re going to capture that bubble. And as Jim said — I’m saying that lot because he’s right, we’re going to capture that and hopefully get these projects paid for before the other guys turn on the switch.”

“Polyethylene demand only grew by 1% from ’11 to ’12 in China. We’ve come to know Chinese demand growth for polyethylene to be at least at the pace with GDP, if not the multiple of GDP”

“We’ve shuttered 2.5 billion pounds of capacity in Europe.”

“You’ll see some LNG export happen. I suspect it will be fairly modest. I participated in LNG business in the past. And if you look at the global economics of that, as soon as methane prices start to rise a bit, you’ll see a production increase fairly rapidly in the dry gas plays, which will moderate that.”