According to Factset, analysts now expect S&P 500 sales per share to fall by 1% for the full year 2015. However, the same estimates have earnings rising by 2% in the same period. If revenue is going to be lower … Continued
There are those who argue that deflation is dangerous because we don’t know how to fight it. That’s not entirely true–the US economy has exited deflation before through huge government spending during World War II. So we do know that … Continued
Below is a letter that is written monthly for the benefit of Avondale Asset Management’s clients. It is reproduced here for informational purposes for the readers of this blog. If you are interested in receiving this letter monthly by email, … Continued
Below is an update of a chart that I first ran last year around this time. It’s the multiple of the S&P 500 using “peak” earnings (the highest level of earnings recorded to that date). Using peak earnings solves some … Continued
According to Factset, S&P earnings growth for the calendar year 2015 is now expected to be just 2.9% (vs. 8.2% expected growth on Jan 1). Still, most people seem to believe that the S&P 500 will have a decent year. … Continued
For a brief period in January the dividend yield of the S&P 500 exceeded the interest rate on the 10 year treasury note. Since then treasury rates have risen back above the S&P 500’s dividend yield, but the two yields are … Continued
Below is a letter that is written monthly for the benefit of Avondale Asset Management’s clients. It is reproduced here for informational purposes for the readers of this blog. If you are interested in receiving this letter monthly by email, … Continued
Last week on Suntrust’s conference call, the bank’s CEO noted that the decline in oil prices should give the US consumer an income benefit roughly equivalent to the size of a tax refund. That comment got me thinking about another … Continued
Schlumberger said this: “The dramatic fall in oil prices is instead a result of higher marketed supply in the second half of 2014 from North America and also from OPEC who have shifted focus from protecting oil prices to protecting … Continued
Last year I posted that after two years of double digit percentage gains equities have a tendency to be down in the third year. Despite that statistic, stocks were up by double digits again last year. So, what does that … Continued