Caterpillar at Morgan Stanley Notes

Tom Pellette – President, Energy & Transportation

Oil usage is here to stay

“there is a lot of, you can go out on YouTube and see a lot of pundits talk about the end of the internal combustion engine or you hear countries that are announcing they’re not going to have any more internal combustion engines after a certain year. You also hear a lot about peak oil demand that as I detailed in my presentation yesterday, the world population is growing we still have 15% of the world population of 7.5 billion people that don’t have access to electricity and particularly in developing parts of the world there will be continued need for fossil fuels. In fact, the prediction is that the absolute usage even though the percentage will decrease, the absolute usage will continue to grow 2040 and beyond. So, we are very heavily focused on becoming more efficient cleaner engines but continuing to provide reciprocating engines to the industries that we serve and in fact oil and gas usage continues to advance as people want to improve their lives”

There’s an economic balance point for electric vehicles

“we talk about electric cars and still the adoption rate is very low and they are still more expensive than conventional cars. When people say, when they look at a country like Norway, they have a high adoption rate of electric cars, but then you look at it and it’s all subsidized. So eventually that economic balance point will be reached and then these technologies will be embraced a lot more quickly we’ll be ready.”

Amy Campbell

China construction has surprised with its strength

“So, China Construction has surprised us all year with its strength. We expected China to do better, we thought but it’s quite better than we thought it would. For many reasons, one being that the used equipment market there is not as robust and we think that’s driving some of the higher demand and more matured European and North America market you get lot more used equipment to leverage for the industry.”

Comcast at Goldman Sachs Conference Notes

Brian Roberts

Had the biggest upfront ever

” we had a really biggest upfront I think the company has ever had in this most recent upfront. We sold more upfront up 8% of our inventory than we did a year before. Our price was up. We have said around the same kind of number.”

The ratings decline gets offset by CPM increase

” all-in-all, the ratings decline gets offset by the CPM increase and the total dollars continue to be very stable and that’s critical and that happened again this year and in the scattered market, we’re seeing continued strength there. ”

Are you really getting the value out of the digital platforms that you are saying?

“the more time I spend talking to the advertising folks who take a show, Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon or shows that are out in digital in great numbers and many shows are there, and are you getting paid on the Facebook platform, no. And so, and are there advertising getting their value from some of those other platforms for what they say they’re getting versus what they are getting. There is a lot of swirl around those questions. ”

Xfinity mobile offering

“So we’re really pleased with the start. Just to remind everybody. It’s MVNO on the Verizon network. So we’ve a good relationship. It’s working well. You can activate it right away. We’ll ship it to you in 24 hours. You can pick it up. Get it by in a store, and there’s only two plants, really simple product. Maybe the most simple, elegant execution the company has ever had, really great packaging, really simple, $12 a gig or $45 unlimited. That’s it. And when the new products come out like today, I believe we’ll have those products in all our stores and on our digital site, same time as anybody else.”

We paid 1/4 for NBC what AT&T paid for Time Warner

“We have resources that allowed us to buy NBCUniversal when times got tough, more will change. We bought NBC for about $26 billion. People said, buy more stock at that moment. Today AT&T is paying over $100 billion and I think the cash flow with NBCUniversal and Time Warner are pretty comparable.”

Suntrust at Barclays Notes

Aleem Gillani – Chief Financial Officer

Rates moving up is a double edged sword

“Thank you. Well, one of those indicators actually is higher rates. As rates move up naturally, it will start to put some people or companies under stress. So higher rates is a little bit of a double-edged sword. It’s clearly going to benefit us, given the fact that we are asset sensitive and we will benefit from higher rates. But that’s an indicator that we’re watching from – we’re watching for.”

Some indicators that would usually point to the cycle turning have been false positives

“Some of the other indicators that we’re looking at actually look like they maybe giving false positives in a couple of instances. We’ve been certainly watching the auto market. We’ve been watching the CRE markets and looking for areas of overbuilding or overheating there. And that has caused us in a couple of instances to be more cautious in certain areas. And again, perversely from the double-edged sword perspective, the effect of both Harvey and Irma may help in all those markets.”

Goldman Sachs at Barclays Conference Notes

Harvey Schwartz – President and Co-Chief Operating Officer

The environment could get better

“We also know that the environment could get better. For example, both interest rate and volatility could increase from near record levels. The yield curve could steepen. Our investing clients could post better performance and have more conviction. There could be more clarity on economic policy and the global economy could grow at a higher rate. Any or all of these factors could drive greater client activity and a better opportunity set for the firm. That would provide even more potential revenue upside to both our initiatives and the firm more broadly.”

Wells Fargo at Barclays Conference Notes

Tim Sloan – Chief Executive Officer

Loan losses are the lowest I’ve seen in my career

“As I mentioned, our loan losses in the second quarter were 27 basis points, it is the lowest that I have seen in my 30-year career in the company. If you take apart the various parts of our portfolio, the residential first mortgage portfolio is continuously performing incredibly well. As I mentioned, we had net recoveries in the second quarter, similarly the home equity portfolio, the second portfolio, I think the losses in the second quarter are 21 basis points, so it is again the lowest that we have seen that I can remember.

On the auto side because of the changes that we made in our auto business, we experience a slight decline in auto losses. I would caveat the expectations for the third and the fourth quarter in that, there are a lot of cars right now that are underwater in Texas and in Florida, and so there may be some issues there. We do not have a sizing of that right now, I don’t think anybody does. The credit card business continues, the losses have ticked up across the industry and up slightly for us, but it’s not something that we’re overly concerned about.

On the commercial and C&I and CRE side of the house again, some of the lowest in history and we really don’t see anything on the horizon that’s going to drive higher losses in that portfolio. There will be some impact I’m sure from the hurricanes, but we don’t believe at this point that it’s going to be significant. So overall, we’re in a very benign credit environment, I think you got to be careful when you are in a benign credit environment like this that you believe because you do want to believe that it’s going to continue forever, but geez while it lasts, it’s absolutely terrific. And I think it reflects not only a slow but steady growth in the economy, but also some good credit decisions that have been made by my colleagues over the last few years.”

Netflix at Goldman Sachs Conference Notes

David Wells – CFO

Content spend going to continue to grow

“it took us about a decade to get to where we are, over 100 million global subscribers, so we’re super excited about the potential for what the next decade might hold for us. We’ve got about 5 billion to 6 billion content spend growing beyond that, Ted I think mentioned $7 billion number lately, that’s going to continue to grow if we’re able to continue to grow our global subscriber base like we think we can.”

There is diminishing marginal return to content spend at some point

“What I think that there is generally strong belief that there is diminishing marginal returns to content spend. And certainly, at some point, that has to become true whether you believe that there is a growing body, a library of content that’s already been paid for, or whether you feel like there is so much content on the site you’re starting to cannibalize your own content and there is sort of no point to adding more.”

JP Morgan at Barclays Conference Notes

Jamie Dimon – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

US economy doing fine

“The U.S. economy is doing fine, it’s been chugging along at 2%, less than 2% on average probably for the last seven or eight years. It’s the longest – one of the longest recoveries we’ve ever had, 10 years is the longest, I don’t think that has end to not end. I would say a very important factor is it’s been half of a normal recovery.”

Synchronized recovery

“I think the question that then comes to me is, why is it half of a normal recovery and if you do a quick turnaround the world by the way, Europe is doing better than 2%, Japan is doing 1.5% to 2%, China is going to make is 6%, Brazil has gone from negative 4% to 0%. So you kind of have for the first time called synchronized, the first time like 12 years, just about everything is starting to grow a little bit, which I think is a plus for everybody.”

Regulatory environment not changed a lot because don’t have people in their jobs

“I think the regulatory environment has not changed a lot because we don’t have the people in their job, so you now have the OCC head which was passed by the Senate, Randy Quarles, Fed Chair, Vice Chair just passed by the senate. You don’t have an FDIC person yet, so you are not going to have these huge changes in regulations. We don’t expect to have any regulatory legislative changes so that’s not our hope or belief. We do think the treasury laid out a very good math of issues that that should be looked at all calibration.”

Hoping that QE reversal is seamless but who really knows

“The QE is still going on, so like even in the last couple months something like several $100 billion of purchased securities, all you hear now is talk about reversing that….QE, I’m hoping, I think the circumstance which they reverse it are important, so if you have a healthy economy and they are kind of raising rates and reversing QE that is very, very different than if something else is going wrong. I think it’s a little bit of wishful thinking, so I’m not predicting bad things, but you don’t really know, it is going to be a multi-year plan. We hope it’s seamless, we hope it’s painful, the hope the economies are good, what is the chance if not? We never had QE therefore we never had the reversal of QE and it will have some consequences when people reverse it.”

My view is hold onto your hats

“So my view is, hold onto to you hats, it’s not clear and we are going to be sitting here from a year some might get hurt, things might be more volatile of the economy…So, I think that we can’t expect serendipity forever, so as a company while I’m not predicting bad things, we’re always prepared for it.”

One day people will panic

“It’s definitely cyclical folks, I mean you have a volatile market one day again, markets and markets people panic, people panicked in 2008 and 2009, they panicked in the 1989, they panicked in 1994, they panicked in Asia in 1997, they panicked in the Internet thing in 2000, the people will panic, you will panic. You will all be running through the door like everybody else and regulators will panic and – come on, and I just said, the government support $12 trillion securities that has to have some effect on depressing volatility, particularly around all the benchmark, all the benchmarks. Remember the benchmarks do affect the non-benchmarks and stuff like that. So market will become more normal again one day and again I think the most important thing to keep in mind is the why”

Credit is almost the best it’s ever been

“Well, it’s not credit. You know if you look at credit, it’s almost the best it’s ever been ever, so also my credit card, middle market, large corporate, there are tools, there is exception of subprime, I do think somebody get hurt leasing in subprime, but it’s not systemic, there is problems to lending, but it’s owned by the government which means you’ll never know about it, though you will pay for.”

Bitcoin is a fraud

“The currency isn’t going to work okay you can have a business where people can invent a currency and that’s in air. And think the people who are buying it are really smart. It’s worse than two of the balls okay it won’t end well. And it won’t end well for two reasons. One is someone’s going to get killed and then the government is going to come down. The second is you just saw in China governments like to control their money supply. The first thing a nation does when it forms itself literally the first is form a currency they have a bank and it has some kind of support legal support legal tender sometimes support like gold or silver that is a currency. So whatever and where think that bad that is this one is worse. So it will blow up China just kicked them out it’s selling through its money somewhere else it will be but I don’t ask me if it is short I’m not going to it could be 20,000 for this happens, but it will eventually blow up it’s a fraud okay. And honestly I’m just shocked anyone can see it what it is.”

CBRE at Barclays Conference Notes

Jim Groch – CFO and Head, Corporate Development

It’s been a long cycle but don’t see anything that would suggest a recession coming

“Sure, well I guess first I think it’s perfectly rational that the sales cycle relates to business cycle, the last four cycles have been seven to 10 years, the last recession started in beginning of ’08, we’re a couple of months from beginning at 2018. So, it feels like we’ve been out there for a long time…the data they weren’t used to see, none of it really indicates is that a recession is coming in the foreseeable future. So how long that could go, it’s impossible to know, the people who will be better in predicting it from my own perspective being in the business through a number of cycles can easily run for three to four years. And that seems counter intuitive given how long the cycle has been. And we are running our balance sheet with the mindset that if a recession could hit tomorrow, so we’ll be prepared to invest into a downturn.”

I don’t think there’s a real estate cycle

“First thing is I always like to say there is no such thing as a real estate cycle. I think it’s just a business cycle and real estate can have more or less data to the business cycle depending on kind of supply and demand dynamics. So, I think for me personally there is a disconnect between stock market that shows no sign whatsoever of us being or no big sign that were late cycle and the anxiety around kind of the real estate cycle and that just. And then on the supply demand side, I think it’s in reasonable balance couple of the metrics that we provided on that.”

Spreads are wide, assets reasonably priced

“The same thing on the valuations. If you’ve been in real estate for a few decades, just go back 10, 15 years ago cap rates were sort of just 9% for office cap rates and then for a long time, at least sort of suburban office just didn’t have much connection in the interest rates. Clearly that’s not been the case for the last 15 years or so. And the fact that spreads are as wide as they are, I think is an indicator to me at least that assets are priced to perfection, I think they’re reasonably price…I’m afraid that people who are not controlling about the real estate business look at an absolute cap rate of 4.5 or [indiscernible] office building or whatever the number, it’s five and they think on my god that’s terrible, but they kind of forget that investment — required investment in terms of any other asset comes down followed by the same amount.”

BB&T at Barclays Conference Notes

Kelly King – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Loan growth lower because higher payoffs amid lower rate environment

“When we announced our second quarter earnings in July, things were actually moving at a pretty good pace, and we were more optimistic. So we had a higher guidance for loan growth at 1% to 3% from the third quarter. We’re now revising that to be slightly down for the third quarter. And here is why. So, obviously, you will not to see – not like to see average loan growth go down. But in this case, after analyzing, what happened is loan production, loan pipelines have continued. It’s just that in late July, early August, when we saw a material reduction in long-term rates, there was a huge spike in payoffs. And so that’s kind of an uncontrollable event.”

Not concerned about loan growth

“What I think the importance is, as rates begin to creep backup and as those payoffs exit the systems, you’ll see a more return to more kind of normalized loan growth in this period of time. So we’re not concerned about loan growth. We believe it will be steady and solid as we go forward. Hard to know exactly what it will be for the fourth quarter right now, because it’s hard to predict those level of payoffs. But certainly as we head into 2018, we think those payoffs will subside and we will continue to have a good solid loan growth.”

Main street is coming back

“Main Street is beginning to come back. When I travel around, I just completed my tour of our 26 regions, visiting with business people and our lenders in those marketplaces. I’ll tell you that small and medium-sized business people are much more confident, much more optimistic, they’re beginning to make replenishment type investments and that is beginning to cause more activity for us in that marketplace. ”

Digital is happening even faster than it was

“The digital focus is a really big deal today for all of us in banking. Frankly, it is changing really fast and a bit faster frankly than a few years ago. I might have guessed, but it is moving in a very, very fast and positive direction. The key there is for banks to be investing properly in their digital platform, in the digital marketing, and all aspects on digital interaction with our clients and BB&T is doing.”

Small business has been more optimistic since the election but still waiting to make expansion investments

“Consistently what I have found is, after the election they immediately became more optimistic and started moving towards investing what I call passive or replenish investment. These companies will tell you consistently that they have been driving folks with 350,000 miles, they’ve using 20 year old computers, and they just been scared to death laying, because all of the taxes, all the health reform, all the regulations are just in place. So after the election they became more optimistic, they started making replenishment, replacing their fleet, now they are not doing expansion or investment, yes they are not building expanding the plant, they are not adding a lot of new products and services. In that case, that – they are waiting on I think mostly tax reform. I think when you see tax reform, I personally believe will happen by the first quarter or so of next year, and I’m saying that will move then from just passive or replenishment investing to expansion oriented investment, which will call the GDP to kick up from the 2% kind of range to 2.75% to 3%.”

Kroger 2Q17 Earnings Call Notes

Rodney McMullin

We’re doubling down on digital

“we’re doubling down on digital; and we’re leveraging new and ongoing partnerships to deepen our connection with customers and drive revenue.”

Really too soon to say any impact of the Amazon WFM purchase

“In terms of the impact, obviously, it’s way early, but there isn’t anything that would cause you to develop any point of view at all, in terms of changing trends, but it’s only been a week and a half. So, I would caveat it a million different ways.”

Private label plant is currently operating at capacity

“In terms of our plant capacity, if you asked our manufacturing team, they would probably tell you they’re at almost capacity. I’ve always found and we’ve always found that we always figure out ways to produce incremental product and do it very efficiently. So, in terms of capacity, it is one of the great things about knowing how to operate plants, we could easily expand capacity, either through process change or additional expanding plants, things like that, whether is needed.”

Customers look for total experience

“The biggest thing that the 84.51° insight shows us is the customer decides where to shop based on their total experience. And obviously that total experience is what’s the shopping environment like, so what’s how the associates treat the customer. What kind of rewards do you have, what type of personalized offers are you making, which is very hard for anybody to see that other than each one of us as a customer individually. And then, obviously from fresh product standpoint having great produce, meat, deli, dinner tonight, these kind of things. So, the thing that’s really important is the all of that together, the price, the specific price items, really each one of us would have different items that are in our biggest hot button.”

Mike Schlotman

Have product cost inflation for the first time since 2015

“Another positive sign is that we had overall product cost inflation for the first time since 2015. As you know, the change from inflation to deflation and back again is one of the toughest environments to operate in for our stores, and we’re proud of our team’s ability to manage through it.”