Initial Unemployment Claims

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Initial claims fell this week to 388,000–still elevated, but certainly an improvement.  Below is a time series of initial claims (4wk moving average) since 2000.  Today’s level is still consistent with the levels seen in the 2000 recession.

Stuck in Neutral

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It seems like markets have been on quite a roller coaster ride over the last few months, and as mentioned in a previous post, the average daily move of the S&P 500 over the last 90 days is the 4th highest … Continued

Retail Sales vs. Wages

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Retail sales were reported this morning up 0.5% for October and up a robust 7.2% on a year over year basis.  The growth in consumption has been pretty spectacular, especially compared to wage growth as demonstrated in the chart below. … Continued

S&P 500 Aggregate Statistics

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Some random statistics on the S&P 500: S&P 500 aggregate market cap: $12.01T TTM aggregate revenue: $9.86T Aggregate book value: $5.95T Average gross margin: 45% Average operating margin: 14% For comparison: US GDP: $15.2T

S&P 500 Average Daily Move

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Another day, another triple digit move on the Dow and >1% change on the S&P 500.  The markets have certainly been volatile lately, but how does the last few months’ volatility compare on a historical basis? Below is a chart … Continued

Italy vs. Japan Debt to GDP Ratio

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 If Italy’s debt loads are unsustainably high, then what should one think about Japan?  The country has an economy and population that is shrinking and a national debt that is much larger than Italy’s. Click to Enlarge I’ve cherry picked … Continued

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