The current economic expansion is now in its 47th month going back to June of 2009. That means that since 1857 there have only been seven periods of expansion that have lasted longer than the current one. Out of the 33 total cycles in that period, the average expansion lasted 38 months. Since World War II the average has been 58 months in 11 cycles.
As the market continues to climb, we’re entering that crucial 50 month period where two secular bear market expansions stalled (1933-37 and 1974-1980). On the other hand, it’s totally possible that we’re on a path more like decade long expansions of the 60’s, 80’s and 90’s. So which will it be Mr. Market? The answer has pretty big implications for whether one thinks that the market can continue to advance from here.